Ratan Tata's Tata Motors plans to introduce Tata Nano on Indian Roads by March 2009. Bangalore has 4 million two-wheelers and 450,000 cars. According to the India Infrastructure Report 2006, a two wheeler occupies 10 times more road space than a bus, in terms of per capita road space utilisation.
A car, not far from that, occupies about 7 times more road space than a Bus. Ratan Tata plans to have atleast 10% of the two-wheeler users shift to Tata Nano.
For Bangalore, that would mean an additional 400,000 cars on top of the 450,000 that we already have. The City is going to be destroyed by the Vehicle of Mass Destruction
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Unfair to pick on Nano
Tata Nano market size
Consider this, CRISIL reports that Tata Nano will be solely responsible for increasing the market for cars by 65%. It is like how cheap semiconductors increased the number of personal computers in the market.
Except, nobody complained about road space for computers, but scarcity of roadspace is so evident in Namma Bengaluru!
Nano will be a disaster for Bangalore. All the efforts that we have put so far into BMTC, BTRAC even Metro and Mono will go down the drain even if 10% of our two-wheeler population shift to a Tata Nano.
There should be a ban on Tata Nano from Bangalore roads.
Nano as auto
Hopefully Nano will be better than autos in:
- Emission standards
- Engine power : Resulting in faster moving traffic overall, indirectly increasing available road space and producing less pollution
- Disciplined driving : Drivers might start using indicators and look at mirrors before changing lane etc..
- Better safety and comfort for passengers
And at least in cities, who would want to buy Nano as a personal vehicle when it is commonly seen as an auto :-) (Nano will go the Indica way in that case)
Make car ownership and usage more expensive
MC,
Bangalore is not the only city where the Nano will be sold. It will be spread all over India with even the smaller towns in the fray.I think the Tatas will start with about 50000 cars annual production and ramp it up. Some of these are also meant for exports. Bangalore's two wheeler population at 4 million? The last I read (1 month back) it was 2 million. I think you need to provide some back up. Else the facts won't be that sacred :).
India currently manufactures about 1 million cars annually. Nano will be about 5% of that to start with and increase possibly at a faster rate than the rest.
Let's have a thought experiment. Let's say Bangalore's market share among cars is 10% (we are adding not more than 100,000 cars per year). To convert 10% of our two wheelers (as of today) to Nano we need to add 200,000 Nanos cumulatively to Bangalore's roads. That means somewhere close to 2,000,000 Nanos need to be produced cumulatively. If we start off at 50,000 production and grow at 20% per year, - to produce a cumulative 2,000,000 cars we need 12 years (sum of a geometric progression formula). By which time two wheelers would have become 5 million and Nano's share would be 200,000/5,000,000 = 4%. It is a moving target and Tata's will struggle to catch up. (At that point they won't be able to even deliver their vehicles to the showroom and customers won't be able to drive them out of the showroom :)).
The other car and two wheeler manufacturers are not exactly producing very constructive things.
Infinite growth is not possible on a finite planet. We will learn that at our peril soon.
Srivathsa
Drive safe. It is not just the car maker which can recall its product.
Nano Will Increase Motorization levels
Hi All,
When Tatas commence churning out the Nano, our motorization levels might quickly reach those in eastern europe or even those of western europe /north america within the span of a few years. This rapid increase will demand very large capital investments into the road system - possibly, much more than those required for all other transport investments (such as Metro, Mono, etc) put together, if so many cars are unleashed on to the streets, within a short span.
This would be a colossal waste. As some have already mentioned, Nano cannot be blamed in isolation. The solution is perhaps, to make the car affordable to everyone, but impose high operating costs on cars that consume road space heavily, as srivathsa has mentioned.
Aspirations of the people to own a car cannot (& should not) be unduly hampered. Limiting usage patterns of cars is the key to manage within the severe constraints of road space.
Mistake
BCP Statistics:
http://www.bangaloretraff...
So even if 200,000 tata nano's are added to Bangalore roads this year, that itself is enough to create a big trouble for Bangalore.
Remember, just seeing the number of Nanos w.r.t the number of vehicles is not a convenient statistic.
Judging introduction of Nano in terms of road space utilisation per capita is the best way to measure it's disastrous impact on Bangalore.
Bankruptcy of our energy and transport policy
We do not make any serious attempt to promote solar energy and biodiesel even the way many European countries are doing it.
European countries ironically have very less solar and other environment advantages compared to India. We fail to capitalise on that.
Unrestrained growth of private transport is going to be a disaster for Indian cities. The Tata Nano is just what it is going to take to dramatically increase accident rates nation wide.
MC - I am with you but cannot single out Nano
MC,
I am with you in principle - private cars should be discouraged through pricing. But I cannot single out the Nano for this, Maruti Udyog is equally responsible for the urban mess. So is Bajaj Auto with its smoke belching 3 wheeler. So is Hero Honda.
To replace 200,000 two wheelers in Bangalore with just the Nano will take 10 years. To expand capacity to 200,000 vehicles each year will cost tatas a lot. They are already stretched.
The government will have to bring in congestion tax over the next 2 years in some form (higher petrol prices, CBD entry charge). Building roads and elevated roads and tunnels will not solve this problem. Look at the amount of money BBMP spends each year on roads. That is a social cost that Bangalore's car owners are not paying. We need to price that into cars.
Srivathsa
Drive safe. It is not just the car maker which can recall its product.
No intiative to tax private transport
Yes, taxing and making private transport pay for maintaining infrastructure in Bengaluru is essential. But too simplistic measures like LTT (Life Time Tax) instead of yearly renewal charges, paid parking permits according to the make of the car (Class A, Class B etc), cess on petroleum and diesel sold in BBMP and BMR limits are all essential.
What worries me more is that the first time drivers of Tata Nano will largely have NIL traffic ettiquette or respect for rules. Pardon me for being politically incorrect, but for middle class people a car or two wheeler is just a means to get from Point A to Point B. The larger picture of traffic rules, regulations are the last thing in their mind.
This is the only country which need a thick concrete median in order to enforce lane discipline.
Sometime back Smt Vatsala Watsa, a top IAS babuni made a suggestion to issue car permits according to the available parking space of the owner. For example, if the home that the car owner resided in has space for parking ONE car inside the home and not on the road, then ONE permit can be issued.
This proposal went no where.
India is a true democracy, you can buy as many vehicles as you want and drive the way you want. At this rate we will even beat Somalia in becoming an anarchy in no time, given that we are already a functional anarchy.
Agreed with Srivatsa - Nano alone should not be blamed
We cannot single out Nano. Nano is a technological wonder from India targetted for those who cannot afford to buy a car. This is very much helpful for the rural and the tier 2 cities. People in Bangalore will prefer more comfortable and luxurious cars and may not affect Bangalore much.
But 2 wheelers will never be replaced by Nano. The mileage of a 2 wheeler is not possible by any car. The parking convenience, easy maintenance will make it impossible to replace by any car.
Many already have cars but still use 2 wheelers for the sheer convenience and lower running costs. Cars are used during evenings and weekends.
Second handle cars are available for less than 1 lakh and even for as low as 35,000. This has not changed the scene.
Nano is not a technological wonder
It is just a glorified autorickshaw. Ondu autoge nalakku chakra matthu nalak seat matthu nalak bagil haak kottidhane......asthe!
Nano will bring in new complications
I'm not sure why regime after regime ignores the need to charge for parking, especially within CBDs. Charging for parking is a revenue stream that has huge potential in a car-dependent city like Bangalore, apart from it's utility for being used as a tool fo restraining car & two-wheeler use.
Big-10 & HoHo are such good initiatives, but without supporting levers to push people to use buses, they may lose money & there is the danger of them being terminated if they do not produce some results soon.
With Nano coming in soon, the aspiring middle-classes will want to buy & use cars, & difficulties may be encountered with introducing parking & other costs for car use.
I hope the authorities shake up soon & realize this, before the city turns into one huge parking lot.
Parking in CBD
Manual Parking Tickets
Killing the demand
mcadambi, Vehicles of Mass Destruction is too much dramatization. but I share the thought behind your passionate plea.
However, there is supply demand game playing out there. If Tata has their market research right, and there is demand for cars, then that "demand" is the real problem, not Tata Motors who are just fulfilling that need. Banning Nano alone is an elitist thought, its not going to fly. Those who could afford cars thus far have enjoyed the dis-proprtionate use of road space with flyovers and what not. Now that every one is going to have one, we can't cry foul.
We need one visible measure, just one, of prioratizing public transport over private cars. If Nanos indeed fly off the shelves, only positive thing we can hope for is this - the visible increase in congestion levels will finally lead to city, state and central governments getting serious about pushing mass transit over road space and flyovers.
[I like Nano for Ratan Tata's stated vision of safety - two wheelers are unsafe on crowded roads. They are better off migrating to a box on four wheels or more to get that basic safety.]
... and convenient, flexible
SB, agree with you. What SB has not mentioned explicitly - there one more angle to look at; that is convenience and flexibility of transport modes. Personal vehicles score the highest on this. Cars score higher esp. when you have elders, infants and differently-abled. With the current public transport system, I simply can't think of using public transport when my father of 75 years and my kid of 5 months have to go somewhere without a hassle. I can see thousands similar to me, but so far did not have access to a car, would benefit - no point blaming nano.
Our current public transport systems have a long way to go. It should be taken as a challenge to match public transport with personal cars w.r.t. these factors (or atleast come closer). Also, as it has been discussed umpteen number of times here, the usage of the personal vehicles should be discouraged (but only after a viable alternative is available), rather than blanket ban on sales. For eg, we still need a car to go to a hospital in emergency in the middle of the night.
-- navshot
Guys, let's not worry too much
If the Nano is indeed lapped up by a large percentage of two-wheeler riders resulting in the nightmare scenario that mcadambi describes,
1) The Government will have to make massive investments in infrastructure.
2) No matter what they do (magic boxes, flyovers, underpasses), clogging and congestion will keep increasing, frustrating the public.
3) The adminstration and the populace, both, will realize very soon that public transport is the only way to move forward in cities.
4) There will be immense pressure to create effective public transport, and the administration will have to cater to this pressure.
5) So at the end of it, we will have reasonably good public transport, less congestion, and great infrastructure to boot!!!
Now that's looking at the positive side of things :-) :-) :-)
Nano - targetting Autos and Two-wheelers
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/2-wheeler-auto-rickshaws-may-feelnano-impact/351907/
Autos Vs Nano
From the above article:
“The Nano is similar to or cheaper than an auto-rickshaw and offers similar mileage. But it provides more safety and has superior technology, so I see the conversion of this market to the Nano,” said R C Bhargava, chairman of Maruti Suzuki India, the country’s largest car marker.
Over 300,000 auto rickshaws are sold annually with price tags ranging from Rs 1 lakh to Rs 1.5 lakh. The Nano could provide an alternative even for commuters who use auto-rickshaws.
[...]
“Nano is an intra-city product that will have an emotional connect with families that buy scooters either for the daughter or wife,” said S Sridhar, CEO of the two-wheeler segment at Bajaj Auto. “Most of these consumers are well-to-do and would prefer the safety and reliability that Nano would provide over a scooter. Plus, the mileage of scooters, unlike that of a motorcycle, is not that attractive.”
------
My Comments:
The Nano is clearly targetted as an "intracity" car. It targets major metros such as New Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru as their target markets. These cities are already reeling under pressure from an ever expanding car population.
Bangalore with already 600,000+ cars and 2.26 million two wheelers is already face actue pressure of over population of private vehicles.
Imagine if 20,000 more cars were added to our roads every year. We have a disaster in the making.
Perhaps the lone positive comfort can be replacement of our noisy and ugly autos with Tata Nanos.
VMD
I had missed this thread earlier. When I saw the Nano announcement long ago the first thought as a Praja member was astonishment about the “vision” of Tata in introducing Nano. What a shift from his fore Father Jamshetgy Tata who gaveBangalore the premier Institute of IISc
Are tatas visionary or just interested in exploiting a market demand predicted by sophisticated market research? I totally agree with MC.
PSA
Nano Launched !
“What if we fail to stop the erosion of cities by automobiles ? …. In that case, we Americans will hardly need to ponder over a mystery that has troubled us …. The purpose of life for us, indisputably, is practically to produce & consume more cars.”
- Jane Jacobs, Writer & Activist, 1916-2006.
Turning point??
I read in the newspaper that their capacity is going to be 250,000/year when they start up in Gujarat. That is going to be one massive plant!!!
@PSA-sir,
Tatas are capitalists and their sole aim is to increase their shareholder "wealth" and profits. If it means completely destroying what is left of our cities, so be it. I doubt we will see another Jamshedpur from them.
Ideally the government needs to balance this profit motive and environmental concerns by putting suitable taxes on cars. However they have a big problem on their hands - a growing young population which needs to be employed. Urban unemployment leads to social problems (much of our moral policing comes from joblessness - how many employed people have time for this sort of stuff?). How many of us will go back and work in the fields?
The automobile industry can generate significant employment - direct and indirect. Apparently for each direct job 100-200 indirect jobs are generated (suppliers, dealers, after-sales service, truck drivers, etc).
In general, it brings us to another issue. Is it fair to begrudge a two-wheeler rider a car ride. Most of us have had our fun in cars and now that "the others" are going to join and crowd us out, we are crying foul. We want to part of an exclusive club - no?
Srivathsa
Drive safe. It is not just the car maker which can recall its product.
Car Use Restrictions - The Only Way
Srivathsa - you are right, we cannot & should not begrudge additional people from buying & enjoying cars. After all, this has been a dream for many & people will now have an opportunity to enjoy car ownership.
This again takes us back to restrictions & restraints on usage patterns - this is the only answer to control heavy clogging & choking up of streets.
Our political systems & various concerned bodies must quickly recognize & act on these realities rather than adopting a Laissez Faire approach to just stand aside & see what happens, & act every time when its too late - reactionary management has resulted in all our cities getting choked up, & now they think of improving public transport, when it should have been done decades ago.
One can easily predict what will likely happen now within the next few years - what we have experienced so far was nothing but just a small rehearsal of much worse things to come.
Society will adjust to the disruptive change
Nano is a disruptive change though the impact is smoothened out due to limitation in production capacity.
Over the long period of time, we will adjust to the new ways. May be the CBD will shift somewhere else from M G Road, the way it shifted from Market to Majestic to M G Road.
Or there may not be any CBD. People will prefer to stay in satellite towns and visit Bangalore's current CBD and suburbs only when needed.
May be the current car owning class will move to cheaper helicopters subsidized by government :-)
The crude prices may become too expensive in few decades, pushing up car running cost and actually reducing the traffic unless alternate fuels become commonplace.
In summayr we will get used to it one way or another!
The longest rope to hang
Nature has given the longest rope for us to hang.
Srivatsa
Your argument is perfect. Yes we all want cars. How nice it would be if the others did not have. At college I had the cycle. In the whole of our college there were a few using Wespa (Bajaj) scooter. Now majority of all college students have cars. There is nothing wrong in Tata’s policy of serving the interests of his share holders. I totally agree.
Providing employment is a by product. Making profit is the main objective. The principle of survival of the fittest is a nature’s fundamental law. However, a finite number of lives can be supported in this oasis called earth, in the desert of the Universe. I appreciate human effort to colonize other planets in other solar systems.
Perhaps we can beat the longest rope, with so much talent around. Good luck!
PSA
PSA Sir - some reading material for you
You have raised a very important topic, something that our elites want to brush under the carpet. Exponential growth for an infinite time (even for 1000 years) is not feasible on a finite planet. Resources are finite. We have this feeling that technology will somehow save the day.
In fact in today's paper there was a report on Climate Change. In that there was this tiny little statement that India has indigenous coal reserves that will last only about 45 years. Their solution was to add solar power. Very good point. But we need to do it soon and for a reason called EROEI - (Energy Returned over Energy Invested). To mine silicon takes a huge amount of energy. A lot of alternate fuels (including bio-fuels) are sustainable only because of cheap oil.
Here are some links that you might find interesting.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limits_to_Growth
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak
On employment, I was talking about the government's imperative for supporting this project.
Srivathsa
Drive safe. It is not just the car maker which can recall its product.
We only learn from crisis
It was due to a plague outburst that the old Bengaluru created suburbs such as Malleswaram and Basavangudi (at that time, in 1890s). It was due to a balance of payment crisis that we liberalised our economy (in 1991) and now again due to an acute crisis in the power sector are we liberalising the power sector (albeit slowly).
Unless we face a crisis, we do not seem to want to learn.
Ratan Tata replied that addition of Nano's itself might not be the problem, but in effective traffic managament (hopefully Shri Praveen Sood is reading this) is what is the root of the problem in Indian cities.
Only after crying hoarse in various summits like the BMLTA summit are we getting even simple projects like BTRAC and other simple infrastructure.
I predict more chaos for Bangalore over the next few years when the Nano starts coming in.
Resources are Finite
That our Earths' resources are finite is well established & clearly defined as per various articles in wikipedia, pointed out by Srivathsa & elsewhere.
The tampering of nature's self sustaining mechanisms & processes & destruction of the same by man is also well established now, thanks to efforts in part by films such as "An Inconvenient truth".
I dont think we can assume that Nature will somehow bail us out all the time - those days are gone !
I also agree with mcadambi that in India, addressing various issues does not happen as it is being done elsewhere unless the system is pushed real hard & severe obstacles are faced to present-day life situations. This also explains why our planning systems are so unreactive to realities. Perhaps we do not deserve a democratic system, in this respect, where hard decisions are never taken for long-term benefits.
Hope is the only solace, for now, at least !!
Road accidents kill more than AIDS
I don't think we as a society even understand the implications of this:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1931896.cms
Liberal Democracy unfit for India
Liberal democracy does not work in India. It does not even work in Asia. But that is a wholly different topic for now.
The pressures of competitive populism for the middle class or bottom of pyramid are so high that any attempt to regulate this sector is met with hostile oppposition. This vocal section accounts for all the fuel subsidies, food subsidies (the recent case of 81% of families in KA state being declared below povery line), energy subsidies, water subsidies etc etc.
We are going to learn it the hard way sooner or later.
@MC - Accidents...
MC.
I had posted on this http://bangalore.praja.in/blog/s-yajaman/2008/11/26/accident-nation
We as a nation take this far too lightly. We seem to have a fatalistic approach to accidents and road safety. A couple of "namaskaras" at the road side temple and we will be taken care of. Stop at signals, etc only if there is cop looking
Sample this. The other day I was returning home from the Airport at 11:30 p.m. My usual taxi driver was zipping through red lights on Bellary Road and finally at one of the signals I asked him what he was upto. He replied - "Illa saar ishthothinalli yaaru hidiyalla". I lost my temper. I asked him if he would admit me into the emergency ward if someone rammed into the car when he was jumping a light. Or if he would take care of my kids if I was killed. It shook him up. Greatly chastened he drove sedately after that.
This is the general "nothing will happen to me" attitude that people have. As if the 125000 who died in 2008 were on some suicide mission.
Srivathsa
Drive safe. It is not just the car maker which can recall its product.
Our morality is context sensitive
Srivathsa,
I think it is built into the nature of Indians. A K Ramanujan, a poet, scholar and literateur, once remarked that our morality is context sensitive. While the plus point in this is that it has given us great tolerance and pluralism, it has not been able to enforce rule of law, which all the time is context free.
See this: http://www.english.emory.edu/Bahri/Ramanujan.html
The reviewer writes that according to A K Ramanujan, "Context-free thinking, which he attributes to Euro-American culture, gives rise to universal testaments of law, such as in the Judeo-Christian tradition and in the European philosophical tradition, e.g. Hegel. Context-sensitive thinking, on the other hand, gives rise to more complicated sets of standards such as the Laws of Manu, by which appropriateness depends on various factors, especially factors of identity and personhood, such as birth, occupation, life stage, karma, dharma, etc. Ramanujan stresses that this difference in philosophical outcome is not a symptom of irrationality, ***but a different kind of rationale.***"
Seen through the prespective of your driver and indeed most other indians, they see no harm in breaking the red signal when there is no traffic. Similarly, they see no harm in driving on any lane instead of maintaining lane discipline. They see no harm in violating building by-laws and so on....
As P Manivannan recently commented elsewhere on praja, human nature, and indeed indian nature, is too far complex to be dealt with under the scope of law.
I do not see any quick fix solutions to our traffic management crisis. Engineering, Enforcement and Education are necessary - from the people at the commanding heights of traffic management - the Traffic Police. This is missing. And as long as it is missing, it results in a chaos and disaster.