3. TRANSPORT DEMAND ANALYSIS
3.1 Population of the BMA is expected to increase from 61 lakh in 2001 to 88 lakh in 2015 and 122 lakh in 2025. Considering proposed land use, transport sector requirements upto 2025 have been assessed using travel demand modeling. The transport sector recommendations contained in the Master Plan for BMA, city development plan proposed by Bruhat Bangalore Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) under the auspices of Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), region development plan prepared by Bangalore Metropolitan Regional Development Authority (BMRDA), development plans of Bangalore International Airport Area Planning Authority (BIAAPA) and Bangalore-Mysore Infrastructure Corridor Area Planning Authority (BMICAPA) have been examined.
3.2 For the purpose of transport demand analysis, various scenarios have been considered as follows.
Scenario 1: This scenario considers a ‘do minimum’ situation wherein Improvement & augmentation in existing system for the bus network and roads already proposed. The purpose of the scenario is to capture the intensity of the problem if no measures are taken to overhaul the transport system in the city
Scenario 2: in addition to what has been considered in scenario 1, scenario 2 considers the implementation of metro project as planned, a mono rail system covering 50 km, a BRT system covering 30km, commuter rail system covering 62 km, elevated core ring road of 30 km, a peripheral ring road of 114 km and intermediate ring road of 188 km as proposed IN Master Plan.
Scenario 3: this scenario is developed to address the anticipated demand with extensive public transport system as the focus for development. It is developed upon scenario 2 with additional lines of mass transport systems (about 650 km).
3.3 127 lakh person trips by mechanical modes are estimated to be generated in 2025 against 56 lakh in 2006. Present modal split of 46% in favour of public transport is estimated to fall to 29% by 2025 for scenario 1. Thus most of the trips would be undertaken by personalised modes creating unbearable congested conditions. For scenario 2, modal split in favour of public transport is expected to improve to 50% by 2025. However, this is also not enough for the city of size of Bangalore and many roads would still be overloaded. For scenario 3, the modal split in favour of public transport is estimated as 73%. This modal split is in conformity with the desirable modal split for the city of size of Bangalore as recommended by a Study Group of Government of India. The study, thus, recommends scenario 3 that would fulfill the objectives of the transport sector development integrated with the proposed land use and giving predominance to the public transport system.