BMTC has postponed its Rs 750 crore IPO for the time being due to volatile market conditions. But its never too late to look at their plans. BMTC had submitted a Rs 3000 crore plan tothe center under JNNURM to "modernize and expand its network to meet the public transport demands of a growing city.". The plan is (source: Livemint) "to raise money from the public to add luxury buses on newer routes".
Going by the year old LiveMint article, BMTC certainly has a good image:
- only profitable public transport company in india
- earned a profit of Rs224 crore on an income of Rs887.59 crore for the year to March 2007
- employs around 6 people for each bus, as against 10 people per bus at the loss making BrihanMumbai Electric Supply and Transport Undertaking (BEST).
Now, as per another news sources (Hindu), here is how BMTC plans to use this money:
The capital raised from the IPO is to be used for fleet acquisition, including buying 1,000 Volvo buses, 500 other buses (for “Suvarna Karnataka Service” that will have no standing passengers), bus shelters, and other expansion plans of the corporation
Now, for me as an investor, I need two critical pieces of information before rating this IPO.
- What is BMTC's track record in modernization efforts? To be more specific, how are their Volvo services faring (overheard - not good)? How are their Suvarna services doing (overheard - okay)? How much investment do these bus shelters need, and do they have the required jurisdiction to design bus shelters (we know via some recent news sources - BBMP is building bus shelters for BMTC, and they are running late).
- Using public money is a good idea - adds the pressure of performance to BMTC. But I wonder if the present tightly monopolized setup guarantees that the public money will be put to the best use. Perhaps the monopoly is required to ensure the success of this IPO - we will have to use BMTC for lack of choice. But if public transport sector in Bangalore is opened for competetion later on, will that be akin to cheating those will buy into the BMTC IPO today?
I wish BMTC all the success, so don't get me wrong. But success of BMTC as a public entity, and with the shield of monopoly, is first in making sure it can carry 50% of city's commuters on its buses. Whether it makes money or loses some, that comes next (sorry to say this, but a public body exists for service first, profit later). And thus, its financial restructuring requires a closer scrutiny from us - the people. I was not sure if that is happening today, and thats why this post.
cheers,
Pranav.
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how about basics?
Transportation Engg?
Dear RKay As far as I know,
As far as I know, many universities offer such courses. Your reference to “Transportation Engineer” as of “Glorified Civil Engineer” indicates such myth about what exactly constitutes Transportation Engineering. Transportation engineering in itself is a big stream with various subcomponents. In India, in majority of good universities it is offered as a Post Graduate course. Many universities concentrate on various sub aspects of it. If you go to the UVCE you would know that they are very good in pavement engineering. If you go IIT-Bombay they are good in planning and in Operations and management. If you go to IIT Delhi they are good in sustainable transportation (because of its Proffs). IIT-Roorkee is very good in Air and Noise Modelling, IIT Karagpur has one of the best courses in pavement engineering in the world..Universities like CEPT are designing one of the best BRTS in Asia. You should meet some of the good proff’s in India and abroad to know more about the Indian expertise in such matters. Please mail me so that we can discuss further (sudhirgotaatgmail.com). I am working as a transport specialist in one of the best NGO’s in Asia. After spending five years completing my post graduation in the field I still feel that there is so much to learn... such is the depth of the subject…
Trans Engg
Sudhir
Thank you for correcting me on the available expertise on Trans Engg in Indian Univs. How is this expertise actually being used by the govts - city/state/central? Are any of the academic research recommendations translated into IRC standards and updated continuously? In Bluru, the BDA comes up with 30', 50' or 80' roads. Is there any method to their madness? What is the ideal/max traffic volume for such roads?
As someone has already pointed out, just marking out the lanes in a visible manner could force better road use. Ex: J.C Road - the flow is so horrendous. That road itself could be an easy graduate level thesis!!
What i am saying is that we need to start from the basic road specifications to figure out the drawbacks. Of course corruption will be part of the discussion but that is only at the execution phase. Is our design process good enough?
nothing transparent about it
I had stated elsewhere that BMTC provides greater scope for RTI exercises, and from far longer than the BIAL (http://praja.in/bangalore...). Seeing this blog, somebody very knowledgeable on these matters called me to say that BMTC is going ahead with 10 TTMCs at a cost of over Rs 400 crores, based on the designs of a single architectectural firm, hand-picked by the state-owned consultancy set up - IDECK, without the proper procedures being followed. Tenders have now been floated, without bothering with any public hearing, as would normally be required, and lobbying is now on for awarding of the contracts.
BMTC was undoubtedly a milch cow for the earlier regime. Apparently, the people in control have struck the right equations with the politicos in the current regime also, and the merry bandwagon is set to move on. However, there appeared a discordant note on the matter of purchase of VOLVO buses, with the minister concerned apparently pitching for a new TATA buses, supposedly much cheaper. All kinds of lobbies are at work, with very little transparency in the decision making - essentially, no way for a government organisation, partricularly a public service agency, to be functioning.
And, all this, even as the traffic scenario in the city, which could ease considerably if reform measures along proper lines are pursued, deteriorates by the hour.
Muralidhar Rao
expertise for BMTC
I must mention here that during the interaction session following a presentation Sri Ashwin Mahesh, a vising faculty member, IIM, Bangalore, on "BTIS - A Partnership for Developing Public Capacity" at the International Seminar on related subjects, held at IIM earlier in the week, Sri Syed Zameer Pasha, MD, BMTC, who was in the audience and was mighty impressed, readily offered in the open to take on the services of Sri Ashwin Mahesh in the capacity of a consultant. There are no doubts whatsoever about Sri Ashwin Mahesh's capabilities, and such arrangements can certainly work well to improve BMTC's services, provided BMTC is sincere about its goals and bothers to implement the recommendations whatever. Now, that's where there are doublts, particularly considering the inevtibale political interferences as in any governmental set up.
Also, that's where competition makes a difference. Then they better implement the recommendations if they want to survive. And, proper public service should be the ultimate goal; not the survival of a 'public sector' company.
Mr Pasha had himself made a presentation earlier, extolling the sterling performance of BMTC, and rolling out the plans for the future, including the setting up of the 10 TTMC's and addition of 1000 VOLVO buses. That the current fleet of VOLVOs, including the VAYU VAJRA's, are bleeding the organisation dry with just some 10% capacity utilisation, is another matter.
Now, if I were running BMTC, I wouldn't need to look beyond PRAJA, and all of the gyaan is available for free. And, If want to go beyond and make it world-class, there's Dr ASJ.
Muralidhar Rao
BMS College
rkay,
BMS College of Engineering used to offer Bachelor in Transportation Engineering and I am one of those who passed out. Unfortunately due to university grants, aids and other issues they do not offer this course anymore but have started a Masters in Traffic Engineering.
Regards,
Suhruta
Regards,
Suhruta
departments not necessary
"yelli ideera" yell hoythu?
Better 'Yelli iddira '
I am surprised to learn that it is due to a technical limitation that 'Yelli Iddira' was scrapped. I was thinking that the reasons were either financial or just bureaucratic.
Anyway, my technical doubts:
* Is it true that the buses sent their location info 'through' satellites? If it is true, this must be a terrible wrongly designed system. GPS does not work that way, you depend on GPS satellites to know where you are and then you transmit that information through radio networks to a central server. This basically means that you have to get a GPS device and marry it to a mobile phone. Can be done for about 10000 Rs at most.
* What is the big deal about buses disappearing behind trees, bus shelters? All GPS systems in the world face the same problem. This can be overcome to a great extant by any decently written software and GIS data. Bus was last seen 25 m from the shelter, it has now been lost, that means it is under the shelter. Simple.
Anyway, I am glad to know that the program has not been scrapped and they are planning to overcome the design flaws. All the best!
-Shastri
-Shastri
prediction
Car GPSs can do it
I cant stop laughin at "somebody sold them a lemon". :)
Yes, it is pretty trivial to implement prediction algorithm. Most in car GPS systems can do it. You enter a tunnel, the GPS signal is lost, but the 'tracker' dot on the screen still moves with an extrapolated velocity. You emerge out of the tunnel, it does a few corrections if at all its estimates were wrong and carries on as if nothing happened.
If BMTC has paid whatever many crores for a lemon, I have a bridge to sell them ;)
-Shastri
-Shastri
another RTI candidate?
prediction
This is how the most basic of yelli iddira works.
at time = t1 GPS says you are at x1. at t2 it says your are x2.
but GPS is not 100% accurate. it has an error of a few meters.
if it is says you are at x1, then you are actually somewhere between x1L and x1U. x1L lower limit and x1U is upper limit.
similarly for x2, you are somewhere in between x2L and x2U.
at time = t* bus goes under tree. and right at that moment somebody asks yelli iddira?. (where are you?)
using info that at t1 the bus was between x1L and and x1U and at t2 it was between x2L and x2U, you can predict that you are some between x*L and x*U.
This is an example that explains the basic idea behind prediction. GPS is quite accurate for the purpose of navigating buses. which means x*L and x*U are very close to each other that is the prediction is very accurate.
you can build on this in simple ways and get multiple order accuracy.
Illi Iddeeni - alutukondu
There are millions of scams going on all around, and, all they could zero in on is this non-issue involving a piddly (comparatively) Rs 1.5 crores. This does not pertain to 'Yelli Iddira?" alone. The so called technical problem was not a serious problem at all, quite like the techies here have pointed out. The GPS system was indeed working well and providing useful data. If I remember right, the signals were coming in every 20 seconds (or even faster) and a few interruptions didn't matter at all. As to how well BMTC was putting the data to use is another matter.
BMTC had tied up with two agencies - Mobiapps and Arya Omnitalk for providing the service. The Mobiapps contract covered some 200 buses, including the 50 VOLVO buses. The contract required Mobiapps to furnish data according to some 20 parameters for BMTC's MIS purposes. All the hardware were installed on the buses and maintained by Mobiapps, all at their cost. This apart, they were required to pay BMTC a certain fixed amount per bus, which figure was covered by an annual escalation clause, in addition. In return, Mobiapps were given specified advertisement space, within the bus. Apparently, Mobiapps had not done their homework well at the time of negotitaing the contract, and within a few months of the operations, they realised the mistake they had made in over-estimating the revenue potential of the ad space within the bus. But, with being stuck with a 5 year contract, and were trying to figure out solutions.
It was around this stage that I conceived the "Yelli Iddira?" idea, having got a fair ubnderstanding of BMTC's operations in my capacity then as the co-Chairman of their CCTF, and from my close interactions with my neighbour and friend, Mr Sujit (an IIT,K alumnus) of CL Infotech P Ltd. We sensed such a service would be best appreciated by VOLVO commuters, and since Mobiapps were already tied up with BMTC for capturing the signals from the VOLVO buses, we approached them for carrying out the trials. They readily co-operated, possibly expecting that this tie-up could bail them out of their predicament. And, within weeks, we presented a demo before Mr Tripathy, the then MD of BMTC. He was genuinely floored, and readily ordered a 6-month trial contract for a total value just under Rs 1 lakh (the figure beyond which tenders have to be called for), covering the 50 odd VOLVO buses. Within a month thereafter, the service was launched with BMTC itself coming out with press releases and also printing hand-outs. Over the next 6 months, except for some operational hitches, it worked fairly smoothly, with an average 1,000 SMSs being handled daily (weekdays) at about 80% reliability. Many users, particularly women executives, were beginning to swear by the service. Higher reliability, add-on services, infact - becoming the public face for BMTC, etc, were all possible. But, with Mobiapps, finding the going difficult due to mounting losses, and decided to pull out, the signals died out, putting an end to "Yelli Iddira?". And, BMTC just didn't bother to sort out the problem.
As compared to the Mobiapps agreement, Arya Omnitalk had a fairly good deal going, supposedly decided through a tender, where they were being paid a fixed sum per bus for providing the data according to the 20 parameters. When Mobiapps withdrew, I am told they were asked to install their devices on the VOLVO buses and provide the data for them. As for "Yelli Iddira?", they said they could do it themselves, though the demo that was presented to me clearly showed it to be a total hoax. BMTC, not even Mr Tripathy, couldn't be bothered, since they had moved on to to the next "jingchak and chamku stuff with flashing images and zooming text", as Tarle has aptly put.
You may make out what you want of it yourselves. May be if it was packaged as some Rs 20 crore deal, with all 'stakeholders' being taken care of, it can be revived.
Sujit tells me that he has now re-worked it, based on GSM, requiring just a SIM card on the bus, thus making it much cheaper. Though less accurate, it more than suffices the "Yelli Iddira?" purpose. He is targeting his marketing today at school buses.
If TATAs or TVS were operating bus services, I expect, such a service would have landed up getting nominated for a Nobel prize.
Muralidhar Rao
Mobiapps business
BMTC IPO Soon
illiyu illa; alliyu illa !!!
The Mobiapps contract covered more buses - nearly 700 (not 200, as I had stated earlier). Whatever, it was still a losing proposition, as you have rightly pointed out. I understand they have now revived the business with some modifications in the contract. I don't know the details; but, that can be checked out.
I may have used the term 'parameters' incorrectly - perhaps, it should be "20 reports usuing the three parameters". And, though the signals were coming in every 20 seconds, the reports generated using them were being transmitted once a week, or something like that. Yes, it contained a wealth of info. But, what use is it for an organisation that can't even use plain common sense?
Because of their cavalier approach, I lost interest and gave up on the "Yelli Iddira?" project. I had only staked my time and effort. Yes, if it was to take off as I had visualised, I would have benefited monetarily too. But, that remained just a pipe dream.
And, this is all very characteristic of any innovation you attempt in a tie up with most government organisations. I had a similar experience with BESCOM also. And, it's not just me. Any straight forward attempt by anyone is faced with too many hurdles till such time as the person finally gives up.
There is of course the 'alternate' route. But, even if people opt for that, the pitfalls are too many, and it will require mastery not available in normal MBA courses to handle that. So, most respectable people and Corporates keep out.
And, that's why things continue in the same old ways where government agencies dominate the scene, and we are near world class where private players dominate the scene.
Muralidhar Rao
BMTC's IPO - public interest hardly the motive
Tarle
You can get as much info from BMTC today, through RTI, as you can by becoming a share-holder through suscribing to its IPO. By off-loading shares, if BMTC can get itself out of government's strangle-hold, it could serve some purpose. But, that's not envisaged in the near future, and therefore it's a useless buy.
Further, in a scenario where BMTC chooses to off-load enough shares to get out of the government's clutches, it cannot simultaneously hope to continue to enjoy a monopoly status. And, when that happens, it will mainly have its large real estate assets to fall back upon, unless of course it learns to compete.
I think the present exercise is largely to pre-empt the government from taking back huge chunks of real estate the BMTC is today in possession of. These should ideally revert to to BBMP, who should be putting up TTMCs or whatever (through PPPs), which may then be made available to BMTC and other players against payment of user charges. Once BMTC is converted into a Company and the lands vested with it, such reverting become almost impossible.
Whatever, I don't see public interest as the motive.
Muralidhar Rao
Criticism of BMTC vs this IPO
Guys, I didn't write this with the purpose of criticizing BMTC's operations. That angle always comes in, we have analyzed BMTC more than anybody else may have.
But I wrote this one to take a close look at their IPO. Two specific things about it
BMTC is better than most, we all agree. They have been innovating, and certainly have it in them to do well. We have understood it pretty well that a good number of their problems are due to them being dependent on other bodies (BBMP, Traffic Police) on their service quality parameters. They can take competition on, just as BSNL is doing.
By bringing in competition, BMTC will only expand the pie, only people who will lose money will be car makers and petrol producers. By staying in the game as a doer as well regulator, or just as a regulator, they can perhaps play the bridge between the government and transportation service providers.
IPO needs to be thought through. BMTC and GoK need to be very clear about their objectives via this IPO (may be they are, but we need to know what those are). Otherwise, this could be a slippery slope with either shareholders suing GoK of cheating down the line, or GoK getting locked into not allowing competetion in local transportation space simply because of this IPO.
slight caution
"They have been innovating, and certainly have it in them to do well."
SB - in the process of trying to be seen as balanced, perhaps you need to guard yourself from becoming an apologist for BMTC :))).
Muralidhar Rao
I mean it Murali
When I said they have it in them to do well, I mean it. Thats because they have the experience running an operation with 4000 buses covering every corner of the city. For whatever reason (competition not allowed), there are no large private players with similar experience. BMTC certainly has that as an advantage. They know what areas are crowded and which ones are not, they know the consumer behavior, their paying capacity. Through they failures (most of them) with Vajra, they are aware of what needs to be done right. They know how to manage and live with the drivers and unions. They know what things lie in whose jurisdiction to do things right.
BMTC, and one or two private parties in it, I am willing to bet BMTC won't go down that easy. They just need to be woken up. You have been saying competetion is that wand, I say public pressure might also do the job.
And you know it, if and when local transport allows competition, poaching people from BMTC is the first thing its rivals will do. Just the way Airtels and Vodafones do it even today - raid BSNL.
it's the whole approach
As far as I am concerned, BMTC's approach to commuters is reflected in this picture - click on
http://www.flickr.com/pho...
And, mind you, this not an isolated instance.
And, I don't see that changing without effective competition.
Muralidhar Rao
re:it's the whole approach
Murali,
Yes, I have observed it too(what is in the picture). Definitely agree with you upon the competition aspect There is one aspect about competition in this sector that I have seen in south canara(Udupi/Manipal/Mangalore) etc. ...which is..the safety aspect. I have seen hellish races among buses as though they are on a mission to hell just for getting a bigger passenger share by reaching bus stops first. So, before competition I think certain standards & regulations need to be drawn up and a system setup in place before allowing competition.
blrpraj-agale'
blrpraj-agale'
That's because of the license - permit raaj. It's all been discussed before at http://praja.in/blog/mura...
Muralidhar Rao