
In my arguments with regards BRTS, I often bring up the key but neglected and forgotten matter of cost-effectiveness of a given solution to our transportation problems. It should come as no surprise to most who are acquainted with my stance that I hate the idea of spending money without a clear crsip rationale and long term plan. And the Metro falls under this category as far as I am concerned.
MMRDA officials have in the past replied in agreement to my suggestion that Mumbai Metro will not solve its problems at all. Given the fact that 10000 daily migrants to Mumbai will swell it to a city 30 million plus by 2030, it will be fair to say that whether Mumbai gets sea links or Metro rail, people will still be travelling in quasi or near stampede like situations and roads will always remain clogged.
The above applies to every Indian city as none has plans on capping growth, if anything the PPP models are ensuring that cities bulge and rip apart at their seams in due course.
The problem is worsened by rhetoric of the DMRC managing director who openly (for the sake of driving business to DMRC) is suggesting that every city with a population of 3 million should have a Metro system.
To get a perspective what this amounts to, I did a quick comilation of available costs (not including Kolkatta as their Metro happened a good while ago).
The Chennai 50 km of Metro rail project is estimated to cost Rs. 11,124 crore, excluding cost escalation and taxes.
The 71-km Hyderabad metro is estimated to cost Rs 12,132 crore.
Mumbai - 146 km at 19,500 Crore Crore (but read here for some calculations that predict the real cost to be as high as 55,000 crores).
Bangalore Metro Rail Project covering a length of 33 kms in 2 corridors at. an estimated completion cost of Rs. 6395 crores
Delhi's 65-km metro cost the state and central governments Rs 10,500 crore
'Hyderabad Metro Rail Projects 71 km at the cost of Rs 8760
Pune ~ 10,000 crores at least
I am not including maintainance and inflation in this figure (neither am I inncluding the higher possible costs suggested for Mumbai) but the estimated total is (and it does not include all phases for Delhi) = 78411 crores
Now to give a perspective on the above figures -
- 2001 census put 72% of India as rural
- India's sanitation programme is worth 1200 crores
- 12500 crores were allocated to improve rural health services in the Union budget (and lets not forget that one major illness can rip through a well eraning urban middle class families finances)
- Mid day meal programme 8000 crores
- 34,400 crores for educational sector
- Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan 13,100 crores (not long ago, NASCOM reported a worry over stagnation of IT growth because India is not producing enough qualified people, all this money just about gets people literate, even there we struggle).
- Farmers debt relief 60,000 crores (60% of India is occupied in this profession, 20% of GDP comes from here, India has second largest cultivable land, but in 60 years has done very little to refomr the sector, research and improve irrigation technology and despite knowing that it will bulge to becoming a 1.5 billion plus country is rapidly giving up farm land in the name of SEZs). 1.5 lakh farmers have committed suicide in last 10 years. In contrast, not many know that IT contribution is under 2% of India's GDP (but there is a myth that the IT is propelling India and hence these mega cities which are IT hubs deserve the best).
Now the Managing Director od DMRC says every city of 3 million should have a Metro.
2001 census puts 35 cities in India as 1 million plus cities, many were beyond 1.5 mark. Most Urban cities have grown 40-50% in a decade (so very soon we have 35 cities who may expect a Metro!!, just because neighbours envy owners pride like phenomenon - but then I we are not talking about buying a Onida are we).
Now one may start calculating the costs of what the DMRC MD is proposing. Plus he suggests that a metro station should be within 500 meters.
In the name of development and traffic congestion (that does not really exist in most of these cities including Pune) caused largely by poor road infrastructure (rather than lack of roads) and pathetic driving habits, what we are being offered are solutions that will prioritise less than 100 million Indians (rough estimate of current population of the cities currently looking at implementing Metro) over and above 950 others. Is it any surprising that 10k migrate to Mumbai everyday?
Build a Metro and expect slums at our doorsteps. No one can stop them from coming, I say they (the rural poor) have every right to come given that they have no other choice but to starve to death in rural India.
ASJ
Comments
Metro proposal has become city planner's fancy nowadays
Costs Vs Solutions
Wider and longer term perspective is needed
Dear Navin, It was not very long ago that I though privatisation and capitalism was the way of life. Just over half a dozen years in UK Health service has changed my mindset completely. Its not just about 60km of elevated metro or underground metro, the major challenge is far bigger and entirely hidden right now. It will dawn on us as usual when it is too late. The per capita spend on less than 100 million people living in the half a dozen cities getting reams of money from JNNURM is unjustified when we look at how much is planned to be spent on remaining 950 million Indians. Its not just Metro, Pune intends to spend 20,000 crores as detailed in the Comprehensive Mobility Plan, that is 10k over and above costs of metro rail (ironically only 5km is underground now). These cities are getting investment on every front - better electricity supply, better roads, flyovers, bridges, subways (magic boxes), hospitals, airports, schools, residential enclaves.......the list can go on. Now widen the perspective to see where all the SEZs are located - all are as close to cities as possible. Almost all are on very fertile soil.
Lets look at the SEZs a bit more -
Embedding a picture of Mumbai Locals, nothing will change even after all phases of Mumbai Metro is built as population will have gone past 25 million and eventually go well beyond 30. Other cities will suffer similar fate.
ASJ
www.driving-india.blogspot.com
The best solution to Mass Transport
Suhas
Suhas
Spot on
www.driving-india.blogspot.com
BRTS + Trams
perhaps 'karma capitalism' holds the answer
"It was not very long ago that I though privatisation and capitalism was the way of life. Just over half a dozen years in UK Health service has changed my mindset completely. Its not just about 60km of elevated metro or underground metro, the major challenge is far bigger and entirely hidden right now. It will dawn on us as usual when it is too late."
Doc ASJ - I don't get it. Where does privatisation and capitalism come in here? What we are seeing here is the result of skewed government policies. As the government policies change, the capitalists will look for newer opportunities. Now, if the point you are making is that it is all driven by the private sector capitalists, I agree, there may be some truth to it. But, what do you say when the likes of Mr Sreedharan of DMRC also pitches for such mega projects, right across some 30 odd cities in the country? India is today more in the grip of 'babu capitalists' than say the likes of the Ambani's. Check: http://muralidharrao.blogspot.com/2008/03/business-of-governance.html
Well, ENRON was amongst the biggest financiers of George Bush. But, when it came to the crunch, neither could he save them. Lehman Brothers, Merryl Lynch, etc played dirty, and are now all wound up. Atleast the US capitalist system finds ways to correct itself, even if after paying heavy costs. Also, a total overhaul seems to be now in the offing with Obama poised to take over. Democracy seems to be asserting itself there to keep a check on unbridled capitalism. And, I think they will come far better off from the present crisis. Perhaps, they will go for 'karma capitalism' about which a number of Indian industry leaders have been talking of. Atleast, I would like to think that way.
As compared to that, Russian, Chinese and other so-called Socialist/ Communist regimes don't even seem to have a clue as to what is happening.
The government healthcare system in UK may be in good shape. But, out here, it is just dismal. And, what is becoming increasingly clear is that the organized private sector players in the healthcare sector have today come of age, and are in a position to take care of the needs of even the poorest of poor in the country. On the other hand, the (dis) services provided by the government hospitals are becoming increasingly costly, in terms of negligence, apathy, mamools (no longer small as the term may imply), fresh infections due to unhygienic conditions, and not in the least life itself on account of these and many other factors. It is time the government re-looked at its role.
I have written extensively on that at http://health-careless.blogspot.com/
Muralidhar Rao
Hand in glove
www.driving-india.blogspot.com
No ideology is 100 percent ideal !
"Well, ENRON was amongst the biggest financiers of George Bush. But, when it came to the crunch, neither could he save them. Lehman Brothers, Merryl Lynch, etc played dirty, and are now all wound up. Atleast the US capitalist system finds ways to correct itself, even if after paying heavy costs. Also, a total overhaul seems to be now in the offing with Obama poised to take over. Democracy seems to be asserting itself there to keep a check on unbridled capitalism. And, I think they will come far better off from the present crisis. Perhaps, they will go for 'karma capitalism' about which a number of Indian industry leaders have been talking of. Atleast, I would like to think that way."
My apologies for my strong tone and emotions in this post. But I can not hold on any more.
Murali Sir, whether you accept it or not, the truth is there is no system in the world that is ideal that suits everybody. The treatment is to adopt the best of the ideology that suits the need and time. This is what the 2008 Nobel Economics Prize winner Paul Krugman,suggests,
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/when-krugman-spoke-of-closing-weak-banks-in-india/372935/
His lessons for India during the Asian crisis suggested during his visit to the country was adequately capitalising banks, closing down weak ones and leaving the convertibility programme where it is.
“It (closing weak banks) may sound hard-hearted, but you cannot keep unsound financial institutions operating simply because they provide jobs. There can be a huge amount of damage a bad bank can create. There is a cruelty to our market system, but that cruelty cannot be eliminated. The alternative is fraught with danger, that of carrying on with the weak banks,” he said
On the impact of the Asian crisis on India, Krugman had said India had avoided the worst partly in the fact that the restrictions discouraged both inflows and outflows of short-term capital.
“No developing country with large-scale mobility in short-term capital is immune to these crises. India, fortunately, did not make the same mistakes. Had the crisis come, there would have been economic devastation, and the crisis would have fed on itself,” according to Krugman.
About prospects of currency convertibility in India, Krugman’s advice was “leave currency convertibility where it is. It’s an extremely dangerous world out there. The risks of getting caught in the pinball game are too high."
Each system comes with its inherent strengths and weakness. Its all depends on who and how one uses the systems. Sitting in one part of the world it is easy for us to give an opinion that market forces will correct the current economic turmoil. The real test of this is with the general public who has to endured the price of greed and lust of the proponents of free market without any regulation, without any social responisbility. Lehman's and MerryllYUnch might have gone under, but the impact they have left on the nations economy is very hughe that ordinary citizens will pay for? How do you think, will pay for the bailout of 750 billion US$? Lehman and Merryl Lynch's CEO's? Public representatives? No sir. It is the ordinary souls who slog every day for 2 square meals. In order to feel this pains and anguish one needs to ask these ordinary souls? Ask the hundreds of workers who are loosing thier jobs, houses and driving them nuts. Sir, the price they are paying is huge and they don't deserve such punishment. They are not responsible for their fate today.
Recently, due to my oversight, i delayed on paying a bill for $107/- by 2 months. The result was it got recorded on my Credit Report. My Credit limits were just cutdown to couple of thousands from about 50K. Not that I make use of 50K limit. But the price I am paying for a small mistake of $107 is huge. But none gets accounted for billions of $s that gets scammed in the corridors of power and businesses lunches. Due you think that it just happenned overnight and nobody know about it?
Now you and me can crtiticise the Nehruian model of building PSUs, huge govt employee network? We can go on hammering Nehru's socialism in the name of free economy and privatization?
But we ever dare ask a question - How did we didn't have to pay thru our noses for higher education? How it is OK to have housing layouts from govt agencies at the throw away prices? Did we ever ask a question, did we pay the market price for all that we enjoy? Did the thousands of young educated work force just came out of blue? Didn't the socialist policy of affordable universal education helped India produce such huge amount of young work force? We may have found new love in "Privitization" and it is fashionable to critisize our past leaders. At least they gave some thing based on thier conviction and love to this nation. They left something that nation can work on to build further. Can we measure up to them in any manner?
Lets not get bogged down by our myopic vision, rather adopt what suits our need and time without prejudices against any one ideology. Lets not carry forward our lives only on ideologocal basis.
Syed
Private healthcare
I created a forum topic here, just yesterday on healthcare. I don't think private guys are anywhere close to providing affordable healthcare for the urban poor. There maybe exceptions, but they are just that now and is not widespread.
-- navshot
call spade a spade
ASJ
This is a reply to your article dated nil (there are no dates) titled “Urban development, costs of Metro and Indian budget - a perspective"
You have started off by saying “In my arguments with regards BRTS, I often bring up the key but neglected and forgotten matter of cost-effectiveness of a given solution to our transportation problems.”
In the very next paragraph you say” MMRDA officials have in the past replied in agreement to my suggestion that Mumbai Metro will not solve its problems at all. Given the fact that 10000 daily migrants to Mumbai will swell it to a city 30 million plus by 2030…………….”
After all the rambling thoughts your article ends with:
“Build a Metro and expect slums at our doorsteps. No one can stop them from coming; I say they (the rural poor) have every right to come given that they have no other choice but to starve to death in rural India.”
This is a stark reality.
Do you suggest that “The city ofMunbai should ban any more influx in to the city?” Your Government rightly wants on the other hand non Maharashtrians like Amitabh and Kannadigas (on earlier days) to vacate Mumbai. You want to have a constant progress of x% and yet have no impact on cities capacity to sustain such a development. You want to have the cake and eat it too. Let us stop being naïve and call spade a spade.
Kindly see my article on Traffic Flow
PSA
Mixing Oppurtunism with anguish,
Calling Spade a Spade
www.driving-india.blogspot.com
clarification
Syedbhai
I don't think you have got me right.
I have never stated that Capitalism is the panacea for all evils. All I am saying is that it is far better than the kind of 'Socialism' India has been burdened with by our politicians, particularly Indira Gandhi downwards. Capitalism will in its wake bring in its own problems. But, very much as the late Sri C Subramaniam had stated, atleast we will be battling new problems and not the same old ones for which we could not find solutions in the past sixty years.
And, I am certainly not belittling the damage caused to the common man by the economic melt-down. I have a number of nephews and nieces in the US, who I am sure have been hit hard too. I myself have lost quite a bit, but I am not cribbing since I very well accept the dangers of the market place. But, I had placed fairly safely, and am not too badly off.
Well, as for Nehruvian Socialism, I'll subscribe to what Sashi Tarror has stated in todat's STOI - check http://bangalore.praja.in/discuss/forums/2008/10/learn-past-mistakes-and-move. A handful of Syedbhai's may have benefited from the government's largesse. But, not the multitudes. If we had perhaps followed C Rajagopalachari's path, perhaps the multitudes would have earned their livelihoods with dignity. Anyway, I'll not hold it against Nehru. Atleast, he was genuine. But, after the kind of damage his daughter did to the country, the word Socialism has lost its original meaning, and it cannot possibly be redeemed now.
I had originally thought of giving a more elaborate reply. But, Sashi Tarror has eased my job. It's easily the best commentary on the current scenario, and the lessons thereof for India.
Muralidhar Rao
It is people who are given charge
The (Mis) Use of Freedom
Lets learn from all of 60 years
Tharur will be first to agree that we need to learn from not just the mistakes of our first 40 years but all of 60, including the 20 years of economic liberation. Indeed he joins many others in rightly challenging the way the rehab of 550 acres of Dharavi slums is planned, click here
The 60 years that have gone by do not equate as failure of the model that proposes social welfare state to stand alongside capitalism. Its best described as a failed Nation thanks to corruption, selfishness and greed. The EU has enough number of countries that pove that socialism and social welfare states alongside capitalism can co-exist happily.
Todays SEZs are nothing different from the licnse raj and subsidy of years gone by. Todays Nizams are being given thousadns of acres and return the state gets almost nothing, in fact its 5 years of tax loss amounting as pointed above to money (177,000 crores) is 20 times more than today's infrastructure costs across all cities - the Nation could be transformed. Instead, the SEZ owners by virtue of their proximity to cities are not having to throw a dime towards roads, rail, shipping or air transport (all this is in place). And then, we will lose agricultural land - something so vital for food security of 1.5 billion (eventually) people. But how does one place value on agricultural lnd that can feed 4.5k crore people year after year after year (perpetually if its looked after), not to mention that it has fed 1000s for centuries already. And any one who argues that SEZs will bring lots of jobs is yet to study the impact of automation - to give an example - Bajaj produced 2.5 million vehicles with 10500 workers in 2005 as against 1 million in 1990s with 24000 workers. Agriculture in India today occupies 60% of the country, many very poor farm workers but its a sector that feeds every mouth in this country. Bajaj produced 2.4 million vehicles in 2005 with 10,500 workers. In 1990s they used to make 1 million vehicles using 24,000 workers.
At a time when the Govt should be raking in revenues via taxation and also starting a mandatory National Insurance scheme for providing health care for all free along with housing and subsistence, we are only ensuring that billions of Rupees are pocketed by select few.
ASJ
www.driving-india.blogspot.com
let's dream
Doc ASJ
I am reproducing below the concluding para of Tharoor's essay:
In the last 15 years, India has pulled more people out of poverty than in the previous 45 - averaging some 10 million people a year in the last decade. The country has visibly prospered, and despite population growth, per capita income has grown faster and higher in each of these years than ever before. The current financial crisis, far from prompting us to retreat, is an opportunity to safeguard those gains and to build on them. For more than four decades India suffered from the economics of nationalism, which equated political independence with economic self-sufficiency and so relegated us to chronic poverty and mediocrity. Let us not condemn Indians again to repeating the mistakes of that unlamented past.
So, the economic liberalisation of the last 15 years has done a lot of good actually. Admittedly, there have been many distortions, and they need to be corrected, and that's where government's efforts needs to be concentrated. They should be framing policies whereby TATAs and TVS would be encouraged to operate efficient and affordable bus services, instead producing cars and mobikes; Mukesh Ambani gets into harnessing solar power and making it available to common man at affordable rates, rather than indulge in the vulgarity of his 'Antilla'; Anil Ambani builds a world-class football team from out of the boys playing at Cooperage in his backyard, instead of trying to buy out Aston Villa (or whatever), Nandan Nilekani makes India the knowledge capital of the world instead of having to worry about how to get the cars of his staff to reach office on time; Dr Devi Shetty leads a consortium to take over all the government hospitals to offer affordable healthcare to aam aadmi rather than saving just a child here or there; Hiranandani builds affordable housing for the Dharavi lot rather than just the fancy flats for the super rich in Powai; ITC transforms the agrarian economy rather than just operate a few e-chaupals here and there.
I would like to believe that many of the Indian industry leaders would welcome such policy initiatives from the government, and the present economic melt-down I am sure will make the others also review their approaches. Now, it's for the government to get its act together, and fast.
To quote Gurudev Tagore - to that heaven of freedom (and prosperity), my father, let my country awake.
Muralidhar Rao
Whats stopping them
www.driving-india.blogspot.com
Is poverty in India coming down?
The thing about statistics is how you want to look at it. It is more like half filled and half empty conversation. There may be truth in that last 2 decades, quality of life in India has improved considerably. But real question is, has the poor improved his condition or remained poor or became more poor. Here is an article from NDTV,
Copurtsey - NDTV
Is poverty in India coming down?
http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20080069516
I agree with doc ASJ on, for real prosperity, we all need to do what we are supposed to do. Otherwise no ideology would be able to help us. It's time we stop running after ideologies. It's time we stop bashing ideologies and the past proponents just because somebody misused it. Let's look at the realities and find solution to problems that works and works fine for INDIA.