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Namma metro phase-I ridership projection and train operation frequency

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Metro RailPublic Transport

 

some of projections made in DPR of namma metro phase-I for ridership and train capacity and operation frequency.  All the data presented below  is without taking into account the north and south extension done at a later stage.

 

 

 

 

Observe six cars on East-west as compared to three on north-south.  This might be increased with the extension.

vinod

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vinod_shankar's picture

train capacity and arrangement

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s_yajaman's picture

A bit amusing - precision of numbers

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Not your post but the numbers from BMRCL, 

They have 10712 passengers in 2011 at Mysore Road Terminal.  10712 not 10700 not 11000.  not between 10000 and 12000.  Single point estimates are not a great way to do forecasts.  Better to work with a range.

I think we should start with 6 car rakes on both.  Supply creates its own demand.  If people see packed 3 car rakes, it might put them off and by the time 3 car rakes are converted to 6 car rakes, it will be another 2 years. 

Aane baradu aane baala... :)

Srivathsa

Drive safe.  It is not just the car maker which can recall its product.

ashwin's picture

Overambitious ridership projections

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According to news reports, including this one http://timesofindia.india..., BMRCL is making even more ambitious projections. To quote the article "In a statement filed before the court, the BMRC has stated that by 2011, the Metro trains are expected to be carrying 10.2 lakh passengers per day. This is likely to increase to 19.72 lakh by 2021, with extensions of the corridors."

So assuming this report is accurately reporting the filed statement (big assumption), BMRCL seems to have goofed up alteast at bit because the first phase is scheduled to be done at the fag end of 2011.

Even assuming these numbers are for the first full year of operation, perhaps 2012, are they seriously saying that they will carry 10 lakh passengers in the first year! For perspective, the first phase of the Delhi Metro (3 lines) had projections of about 20 Lakhs. The actual ridership when it was completed was somewhere in the region of 7 Lakhs. Even today, after small additional segments have been added, and feeder buses introduced by DMRC, the numbers just about touch 10 lakhs on a good day. http://www.indianexpress....

The fact that it carries 9 lakh+ passengers daily is still extraordinarily significant and makes a huge impact on the lives of Delhiites. It is probably tough to find a comman man on the Delhi streets who doesn't love the Metro. But the initial, over optimistic projections give a handy stick to detractors (e.g. BRTS lobby) to constantly gripe about how the project is a failure and keep approaching the court with PILs.

I fear BMRCL is setting itself up for a similar fall.

It is better for it to learn from recent Light Rail projects in the US (Phoenix, Dallas etc) which have very conservative projections and then handily beat them once launched. This creates a huge positive vibe and builds momentum.

 

vinod_shankar's picture

Reason for such high projections

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I beleive the projection in DPR are done with eye on getting approvals from the governments for the project without many questions being raised about the financial viability of the project.  Eventhough its a social obligation of the government to fund such projects, it looks for leeway  by hiding behind the projections in case of any issues.  My money is on BMRCL  not meeting the projection for phase I as did delhi metro, for which it got rap on knuckles from CAG.  The hope is that in the long run metro routes encompass the entire city, with many lines and forks which would mitigate the transportation problems woes of bangalore.

vinod 

vinod_shankar's picture

tender called for reach-3a and 3b extension

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Reach 3a:for Construction of Elevated Structures (Via Duct) from Yeshwanthpur station to Peenya Depot and Construction of 3 Nos of Elevated Metro Stations in Reach-3 extension on North Side for Bangalore Metro Rail Project

Reach 3b:Construction of Elevated Structures (Viaduct) of Length 2.5 km (approx) from Peenya Village station (excluding) to Hessarghatta Cross (including) and Construction of 3 Nos. of Elevated Metro Stations Viz. Jalahalli, Dasarahalli and Hessarghatta Cross Stations in Reach-3 extension on North Side for Bangalore Metro Rail Project
 

vinod

Naveen's picture

Metro - Tunnel Boring Delayed ?

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Recent press reports indicate that tunnel boring will commence only next year (2010). Earlier, in 2008, when we had met BMRCL officials, we were told that tunnel work would commence this year (2009).  Thus, there appears to be some delay - possibly, no contractors with requisite expertise with this kind of work.

The duration for tunnel boring on both sections (NS & EW) will hold the key to completion & commissioning date for the NS & EW routes as many unknown difficulties might be encountered during tunnel boring, unlike erecting piers, which are relatively straight forward & simpler since they involve much lesser area below the ground.

Thus, it seems unlikely that phase-1 will be completed by 2012.

vinod_shankar's picture

Not clear where they tunneling would start from

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The Bangalore Metro Rail Corporation (BMRC) will begin work on the underground segment next month - demolition of buildings for stations and other Tunnelling will commence only after a year. Boring machines will be imported from Germany.

vinod

 

 

Vasanth's picture

Bad News on Metro Underground

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 Bad news on Namma Metro.See the Link

I think just like Reach 1, all the reaches till the underground section should be completed quickly and operated. It will improve faster movement within one zone atleast like Market to Puttenahalli on Southern Reach, Vijanagar to Leprosy Hospital, Peenya to Swastik. 

It is a clear poor project management, underground work being the most toughest one and the important junction being taken up at the end of the project.

 

 

vlnarayan's picture

Bad News on Metro Underground

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If the Underground  work is going to be that hard, rather they can make it elevated..  At this stage of the project it is again going to delay if they think of the elevated route, again the route may have to be slightly changed keeping in view of the buildings/structures of importance. Lets keep the fingers crossed and wait for the official stand on this from BMRC.

 

srinidhi's picture

kuNiyalAradavaru nela donku andaRanthe!

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Tunnels are being bored since more than 100 years now and lets not say that its still a challege..

Internet is full of references to rock drilling..

http://www.csmbessac.com/uk/pdf/le_tunnelier_a_attaque_globale_csm_bessac.pdf

Here is a nice video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quu2r5vs0hA

Its poor project mgmt starting a blame game..let the consortiums take up the challenge and do it..they shd easily be able to do so..

idontspam's picture

Get started already

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I cant believe we cant get this tunnelling thing off the ground. 20% or 70% take the appropriate measure and get going already. So what did they do for the entire year to come to this conclusion? They may need to go a little deeper because of the hard rock so fine it will cost more. Politicians & Babus may be plundering crores, but atleast this will come back to benefit citizens why pinch here?

This stretch is nothing, the entire city needs more tunnels everywhere for roads, trains etc. They cant keep escaping by building overhead stuff everywhere. They better pay some more money and get some experts who have been doing this for years & start tunnelling soon. Even today Citybanan in stockholm is being laid under all kinds of surfaces. We are loosing patience.

sanjayv's picture

What BS!

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 If these guys still do not have an idea of the geology of Bangalore to know how  fine a sample to take and blame the agency that does the DPR alone, they deserve a big kick on their behinds.  Are you telling me that we have no idea of the detailed geology of Bangalore?  Doesn't the contracting agency (BMRCL) have the responsibility of doing due dilligence to question the assumptions made in a DPR?

Naveen's picture

2012 Completion was always in doubt

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I had earlier mentioned (here) that unknown difficulties might be encountered - this is just the beginning. Once they get contractors to do the job, & the job commences in earnest, more such problems will arise (such as - "water table is high here" or "soil is very loose there", etc.) - which is why tunnelling should have been accorded top priority, having known fully well that experience was lacking & the job is fraught with uncertainties & risks.

BTW, I heard that the contractor for one U/G section has already been finalized - anyone knows anything about this ?

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